Modelo logístico aplicado al pronóstico diario de infectados por coronavirus en el Perú

Abstract

The problem addressed in this study consists of reliably forecasting the daily magnitude of the number of people infected with coronavirus in Peru, with adequate precision, in order to establish measures and decisions closer to the reality observed, and thus fight more effectively the disease and its evolution in the country, to those who must do it.
For this reason, we have the objective of determining the simple logistic model, centered on the inflection point of the corresponding logistic curve, of the evolution of the number of infected people, whose use will allow us to forecast this number daily.
Using the official data issued daily by the Ministry of Health, through its COVID-19 Situation Room, and making use of the properties of the logistic curve, we will estimate the magnitude of the number of infected at the inflection point, which we will take as the origin, to simplify the logistic model and give it greater simplicity in its management, for the corresponding forecast.
The determination of the logistic model will allow establishing important prognoses such as: Forecasting the number of people infected by coronavirus daily, the potential capacity of virus infection, the maximum number of people who can be infected taking into account the health response of the Peruvian Health, the dates of occurrence, etc.
The use of said model will allow the improvement of the quality in the strategies of fight against the disease and the possible social and economic impacts, facilitating the conduction and the control, to those who corresponds to do it.