Impacto de los rebrotes de contagios de coronavirus en la curva logística peruana de infectados

Abstract

In the present study, the problem of the impact generated by the outbreaks of contagions by coronavirus is addressed, in the parameters that define the Peruvian logistic curve of those infected, and also in the logistic curve of those recovered from the disease. In this sense, we have the objective of establishing mathematical logistic models for the infected and the recovered, which consider the impact generated by the outbreaks of infections, and also the improvements in the health response of the Peruvian Health System, respectively. For this purpose, the official data in this regard will be used, which is disseminated daily by the COVID-19 Situation Room of the Peruvian Ministry of Health, included within the time period of the investigation. With the results obtained, the maximum number of infected people and their date of occurrence will be estimated; and in addition, a methodology will be established that estimates the daily amount of the sum of the people hospitalized with the deceased, based on a moving arithmetic average. All this will allow us to estimate the date of occurrence of the estimate of the disease in Peru.